Aggies meet Cowboys in Stillwater

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/21/2007 - Stillwater, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The eighth-ranked Texas A&M Aggies have made the trip to Stillwater for a Big 12 Conference clash with the Oklahoma State Cowboys.

Texas A&M has won six of its last seven games to move to 22-4 overall and 10-2 in conference action, as the club continues to battle Kansas for league supremacy. The Aggies were last in action on Saturday when they beat Oklahoma in Norman by a 56-49 final. At 6-2 this season in true road games, don't expect A&M to be intimidated this evening.

At one point, Oklahoma State appeared to be one of the nation's best teams, but the squad is now fighting for NCAA Tournament consideration with a 5-6 Big 12 record. The Cowboys have lost two straight games and four of their last five, including a 75-64 setback to Missouri on Saturday.

Texas A&M cruised to a 67-49 victory over Oklahoma State back on January 20th, overshadowing the fact that the Cowboys own a 26-10 advantage in the all-time series between the teams.

Joseph Jones and Acie Law led the way for Texas A&M in the victory over Oklahoma on Saturday, as both standouts scored 21 points. Jones led the team with nine rebounds, while Law dished out seven assists against only two turnovers. Strong defense was key to the victory for the Aggies, as they held the Sooners to 34 percent shooting from the field. A 13-6 edge in points from the foul line also helped the cause. Law is scoring 17.0 ppg this season on 51 percent shooting from the floor, including 44.4 percent accuracy from three-point range. He has also handed out 143 assists with 70 turnovers and leads the team with 35 steals as well. Jones checks in with 13.5 ppg and 6.5 rpg, while Josh Carter is scoring 12.1 ppg on the strength of his staggering 51.1 percent accuracy from behind the arc. Antanas Kavaliauskas is also netting 12.1 ppg, and he is grabbing 6.2 rpg. The Aggies are netting 75.3 ppg on 50 percent shooting from the field, and they are holding foes to 56.5 ppg on 36.3 percent efficiency.

Mario Boggan continues to pace Oklahoma State with 20.8 ppg and 7.9 rpg, and he is one of the elite players in the Big 12 Conference. The top backcourt performer for the Cowboys is JamesOn Curry, as he supplies 18.1 ppg to go along with his 94 assists. The biggest problem for the Cowboys is that they are allowing 77.5 ppg in conference play. On Saturday, they permitted Missouri to shoot 50 percent from the floor, including a 10-of-18 effort from three-point range. Unfortunately, Oklahoma State was only able to connect on 40.8 percent of its own field goal attempts, including a 2- of-10 showing from behind the arc. If not for a 22-9 advantage in points from the foul line, the final score would have been even more lopsided. Curry and Boggan scored 16 points apiece in defeat.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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