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08/14/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are grasping for straws at this point in the season, as they are quickly falling out of the race in the American League West.
The Angels, who are currently 8 1/2 games behind the first-place Texas Rangers, will try to bounce back in the win column this evening in the second matchup of a three-game set against the Toronto Blue Jays at Angel Stadium.
Trying to keep the Angels close with Texas will be Ervin Santana, who has won three of his last four starts. The last time Santana was on the hill, he led Anaheim to a solid win over Kansas City on Monday.
In that victory, the hard-throwing right-hander allowed three runs in 6 1/3 innings. Santana scattered six hits in the game, but walked one batter and struck out three.
Earlier this season Santana defeated the Blue Jays, with the veteran hurler going the distance and allowing three runs on four hits, three of which were home runs. Despite his problems with the long ball, Santana still struck out 10 batters in the win.
Santana is 4-3 with a 4.61 earned run average in eight lifetime starts against Toronto.
As for the Blue Jays, they will turn to Brett Cecil, who snapped a three-game winless streak with a 2-1 victory over Tampa Bay in his last start on August 6. The southpaw tossed seven strong innings, allowing just one run on four hits. Cecil also walked two in the contest, but struck out nine batters as well.
Earlier this season the Maryland native made his first career start against the Angels, and in that meeting with the AL West squad, the former Terrapin held the Anaheim scoreless through 7 1/3 innings. Cecil surrendered just two hits in the game and finished with three punchouts.
In last night's opener, Marc Rzepczynski was nearly unhittable over seven innings as the Blue Jays blanked the Angels, 3-0.
Summoned from Triple-A Las Vegas to make Friday's start, Rzepczynski (1-1) scattered two hits to record his first win since beating these same Angels on August 21 of last season. The left-hander collected six strikeouts and did not issue a walk, but did hit consecutive batters in the third inning. He lowered his earned run average from 7.15 to 4.42.
Rzepczynski started in place of Brandon Morrow, who had his turn in the rotation skipped to give him extra rest after his last outing. Morrow set career highs with 17 strikeouts and 137 pitches Sunday, when he came within one out of a no-hitter in a 1-0 win over Tampa Bay.
The Angels' Scott Kazmir (8-10) absorbed the loss after he allowed two runs on four hits and three walks in six innings. Los Angeles had a three-game win streak snapped.
Anaheim has taken five of seven matchups with Toronto this season and won twice against the Blue Jays in a three-game series at home from May 24-26.
<< Braves shoot for another win over road-challenged Dodgers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The owners of the best home record in baseball continue a
wraparound series with a team that's had plenty of recent trouble winning on
the road tonight at Atlanta's Turner Field, where the National League East-
leading Braves
<< Slumping rookie gets call for Reds in bout with Marlins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Skidding rookie right-hander Mike Leake tries to end the
first three-start losing streak of his career tonight, when the Cincinnati
Reds host the Florida Marlins in the second of three weekend games at Great
American Ball Par
<< First-place Twins to be tested by A's Cahill
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- The young but talented Trevor Cahill will toe the rubber
this evening for Oakland when the Athletics take on the Minnesota Twins
tonight in the second installment of a three-game set at Target Field.
Cahill has won six of
<< Hughes goes for No. 14 in Yanks-Royals clash
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- The New York Yankees will try to put further distance
between themselves and the rest of the American League East when they battle
the Kansas City Royals tonight in the third contest of a four-game series at
Kauffman Stadium
Hartley on target as Aberdeen hammers Hamilton >>
Aberdeen, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paul Hartley converted three penalty
kicks in his Aberdeen debut as the Dons rolled to a 4-0 win over Hamilton at
Pittodrie Stadium on Saturday to open the Scottish Premier League season.
Hartley
Kuchar still leads PGA; Furyk, Holmes close in >>
Kohler, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Kuchar finished his second round on Friday
atop the leaderboard at the PGA Championship and was still there when the
other half of the field completed 36 holes on Saturday morning.
Fog delays the fi
Keselowski claims Nationwide pole at Michigan >>
Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Brad Keselowski will start on the pole for
Saturday's CARFAX 250 Nationwide Series race after topping the charts in
qualifying at Michigan International Speedway.
Keselowski, from nearby Rochester
Tullo shoots 65 to win Rolex Trophy >>
Geneva, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chile's Mark Tullo fired a seven-under
65 Saturday to capture his first European Challenge Tour win at the Rolex
Trophy.
Tullo finished 72 holes on the Golf Club de Geneve course with a 22-under 2
Barry Bonds Watch: Giants Slugger Says He'll Be Back
With only 21 home runs standing between him and Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds is indeed planning on coming back for more in 2007. At least, that's what his agent told the Los Angeles Times.
"Barry's going to play in 2007," Jeff Borris of Beverly Hills Sports Council told the Times on Tuesday. "I've had many discussions with Barry and he's going to play. My intentions are to see to it he's in a big-league uniform next season. Those are my marching orders."
Contract negotiations could get started as early as next week. Let's see which team has the deeper pockets. Will MLB baseball betting lines despite allegations of steroid use? Bet On It at www.MySportsbook.com .
Get all your baseball betting lines, MLB lines and MLB team props at the My Sportbook.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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