CFL East: Argos dig deep again; Als stay on top

Football Betting Lines

08/10/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a rematch of the epic season opener, the Montreal Alouettes and Saskatchewan Roughriders battled it out again in Week 6. Though the game had little chance to match the fireworks of a 54-51 double overtime Riders win in Week 1, the two teams still put on a brilliant show worthy of the two best in the league. Meanwhile, the Argos pulled off another late-game upset to move to 4-2.

MONTREAL ALOUETTES

The Als can thank their defense for getting through a tough second half against the Riders in Week 6.

Facing a determined Saskatchewan quarterback in Darian Durant, the defense made the big stops when it had to en route to the win.

Linebacker Chip Cox provided the key defensive play with an interception late in the fourth quarter, switching momentum permanently in favor of his Montreal squad.

Offensively the Alouettes struggled to get anything going over the final two quarters.

The Als proved they can win a gritty game when they have to, even if it's against as formidable an opponent as the Riders.

Offensive key to the next game (Toronto Argonauts): The Als have so many weapons at their disposal they could blindfold themselves, spin around in a circle, and randomly point at a player and have him dominate. In Week 5, Avon Cobourne was the weapon. This time around, after the Argos study game film from two weeks ago, it will most likely be someone else.

Defensive key to the next game: Just like in its last meeting, Montreal must stop Cory Boyd, who has been one of the league's best players over the first third of the season.

Look ahead: With the way Montreal has played this season, combined with its recent history of winning records, it's hard to believe the Alouettes finishing anywhere other than first in the East. Wins against Toronto and Winnipeg in consecutive weeks will help confirm that belief.

TORONTO ARGONAUTS

What a way to celebrate a birthday.

Cory Boyd had three touchdowns against Edmonton last week, including a game- winning one-yard run in the waning seconds of the contest.

In a season full of surprises for the Argos, Boyd's emergence as not only the team's most important player but also one of the best in the CFL has to be the biggest.

Boyd's stellar play has also allowed Cleo Lemon to acclimate himself to the Canadian football brand at a more comfortable pace.

The former NFL QB looks better every week but, with Montreal on the horizon, he will have to skip a few steps in his development if he wants his team to get a win.

Offensive key to the next game (Montreal Alouettes): The Argos have lost twice, and both times were the only games Boyd failed to hit the century mark in rushing yards. Boyd ran for just 53 yards the last time he faced Montreal and unless Lemon breaks out with a tremendous performance, the running back will have to be lights out once again for the Argos to have a chance.

Defensive key to the next game: First and foremost, prevent Cobourne from amassing 200-plus combined yards of offense as he did in Week 5. Easier said than done, but the Argos need to do a better job anticipating when the Als will rush.

Look ahead: After Montreal, Toronto has a home-and-home series with the Tiger- Cats sandwiched around a bye week. Considering Hamilton is Toronto's biggest obstacle in maintaining second place in the East, these two games will be perhaps the most critical of the season.

HAMILTON TIGER-CATS

It took six weeks but the CFL's most accurate kicker finally made an impact.

Sandro DeAngelis went 3-for-3 on his field goal attempts, a vast improvement over the 58.3 percent he had heading into Week 6.

It's a big boost for the Ti-Cats and they can only hope DeAngelis will get back to the form he showed in his five previous seasons with Calgary, where he kicked to the tune of nearly 84 percent.

Stealing the show from DeAngelis, however, was another incredible performance from Arland Bruce. Coming off a record-tying 16 receptions in Week 5, Bruce was at it again against Winnipeg with 11 catches for 197 yards.

With Bruce playing at such an elite level, and DeAngelis kicking at his normal efficiency, the Ti-Cats can feel better about finishing the season with a roar rather than a purr.

Offensive key to the next game (Winnipeg Blue Bombers): It's unlikely that Bruce will record 200 yards receiving again, meaning other receivers will have to step up. Bruce and Stala have been the main recipients of Kevin Glenn's bombs, and it's time for the wealth to be shared, especially since DeAndra Cobb has yet to rush the ball with any consistency.

Defensive key to the next game: Strategy shouldn't change for the Ti-Cats in the second part of their home-and-home with the Bombers. The defense pressured quarterback Steve Jyles enough to get him off rhythm, including a crucial fumble in the late stages of Week 6 that led to Hamilton's winning touchdown. Pressure Jyles again and the Ti-Cats will control the game.

Look ahead: A win against Winnipeg would be a great stepping stone to a critical stage of the season: a home-and-home series with the Toronto Argonauts. Catching up to the boatmen is still a possibility. A split is the bare minimum of what they need to accomplish.

WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS

Winnipeg was the only team to lose in Week 6 and now shares the worst record in the division with Hamilton at 2-4.

Jyles had the best game of his career, throwing for 367 yards with two touchdown passes. However, his penchant to run with the football led to two fumbles, one of which ultimately cost the Bombers the game.

Holding onto the football should be Jyles' primary focus if he wants to continue to think about running, though he showed improvement in his overall game so the Bombers can afford to feel some optimism.

Offensive key to the next game: While Jyles has to find a better grip on the football, he should also keep getting Arkee Whitlock touches. The running back needs to hit the 100-yard rushing mark if they want to exact revenge in Week 6.

Defensive key to the next game: It takes more than stopping Bruce from making huge catches to defeat the Ti-Cats. Last week, the Bombers managed to stop Bruce in the final quarter, but they couldn't maintain Stala in the process. With little contribution elsewhere among receivers, the focus should be on getting both Stala and Bruce under wraps.

Look ahead: Of the next three games, the match against Hamilton is by far its best chance of picking up a win. On either side of its bye in Week 8 are matchups against Montreal and Saskatchewan. Not a friendly schedule by any means, making this week's tilt against Hamilton even more important to stay within reach of a playoff spot.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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