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07/28/2010 - Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Off to their worst start in nearly half a century, the Edmonton Eskimos again take aim at their first win of 2010 when they entertain the British Columbia Lions on Friday night at Commonwealth Stadium.
Edmonton, which hasn't won the Western Division title since putting together a three-year run between 2001-2003, probably won't be raising another trophy anytime soon since the club is off to an 0-4 start for the first time since 1965. Despite having the most overall victories (591) of any club in the CFL since 1945, the Eskimos are currently suffering from a five-game slide dating back to last year.
Rick Lelacheur, president and CEO of the Eskimos, has made it clear that losing is no longer an option for this once proud team and that being embarrassed as they have is simply not acceptable. It remains to be seen what Lelacheur has in mind, but he has stated that the entire franchise is under scrutiny and changes could extend throughout the organization if improvements are not immediately made.
Last week the Eskimos were ripped apart by the Winnipeg Blue Bombers who not only scored 21 points off Edmonton turnovers, but they came up with a 47 points overall in the 26-point victory, and all of that with a backup quarterback manning the action for the home team.
Edmonton QB Ricky Ray had a mixed bag when it came to his results, converting 18-of-25 pass attempts for 202 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but he also tossed two interceptions. Early in the fourth quarter the Eskimos pulled Ray in favor of backup Jason Maas, but the move did little to change the lopsided outcome as Maas converted only 1-of-9 passes for 29 yards.
Receiver Fred Stamps, who had a combined 332 yards receiving in the two games leading up to the Winnipeg meeting, caught just two balls for 22 yards and watched his per catch average take a dip down to 16.2 yards after the outing.
Finding a sustained offense has been a problem for the Lions so far this season as well, the team now riding a three-game skid and sitting in third place in the Western Division standings.
Ahead by a score of 20-10 in the fourth quarter, the Lions appeared to be on their way to evening their record on the season, but instead both the offense and defense cracked and allowed Toronto to fight back for the 24-20 decision at the Rogers Centre last Friday.
Even though Casey Printers could have made the start for the Lions last week against Toronto, BC opted to go with Travis Lulay and considering it was the youngster's first-ever CFL start he did pretty well. Lulay hit 26-of-40 passes for 330 yards, with 58 of those coming on a desperation heave at the gun, but he was also tabbed for a pair of costly interceptions, one of which was returned 41 yards for the game-winning score.
Jamal Robertson helped shoulder some of the load for the Lions as he gained 54 yards and scored two majors on 12 carries coming out of the backfield, but the team as a whole was credited with a mere 76 yards rushing on 18 attempts, less than half what the BC defense gave up (161 yards) to the Lions.
Oddly enough, even though BC has just one win in four tries this season and allowed a victory to slip away last week, the program actually moved up two spots in the latest power rankings to fourth, while Edmonton advanced to seventh only after Hamilton suffered such an ugly loss to Montreal on the road.
The Lions made a couple of moves off the field this week as they cut ties with kick returner Robert Jordan, but added quarterback Mike Reilly to the practice squad. Reilly was one of the most accomplished QBs in Division II history while at Central Washington, but his addition to the club doesn't make clear who it will be making the start for the Lions this week, whether it will again be Lulay or if Printers is ready to return.
No matter who it is under center for the Lions, the fact remains that the passing attack is not all that it could be, completing just 59.4 percent and having accounted for three touchdowns, compared to four interceptions. Then again, Edmonton is having similar issues with the same TD and INT numbers through the air at this stage.
Edmonton has fared somewhat well against opposing quarterbacks, allowing for the fewest passing first downs (40) in the league thus far, but if the run defense doesn't put up a strong enough front the Lions might not have to put the ball in the air as much anyway.
In terms of the all-time, regular-season series between these two teams, dating back to 1949 the Eskimos maintain an advantage of 99-68-4. The Lions won the first meeting of the season back on July 4 with a 25-10 decision, avenging a lopsided 45-13 setback to Edmonton late in the 2009 campaign. The clubs also have an October 16 date set for British Columbia.
The pressure coming down on the Eskimos is almost palpable, but just because Lelacheur is going to be over everyone's shoulder doesn't mean Edmonton is ready to make a drastic change. BC has already shown that it can defeat the Eskimos, even if it was with Printers at the helm, but expect the outcome to be much the same this week.
<< Argos and Als square off for first in the East
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their touchdown drought now a memory, the
Montreal Alouettes turn their attention to the Toronto Argonauts as the two
clubs, tied for the lead in the CFL's Eastern Division, tangle at McGill
Stadium on Thurs
<< Phillies try to extend season-best win streak against D-Backs
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roy Halladay tries to extend the Philadelphia Phillies'
season-high win streak to seven games this evening when they continue their
three-game set at Citizens Bank Park against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Halladay won for th
<< Twins hope to continue offensive onslaught in Kansas City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their offense producing runs at an incredible rate,
the Minnesota Twins set their sights on a fifth straight victory as well as a
three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals when the American League Central
foes square o
<< Reds wrap up set in Milwaukee
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After breaking out of an offensive slump last night, the
Cincinnati Reds hope to be swinging hot bats for a second straight day when
the National League Central co-leaders conclude a three-game series with the
Milwaukee Brewe
Staal brothers visit 18U Worlds in Thunder Bay >>
Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - How can one pack even more excitement
into nine days of baseball at the 2010 World Junior Baseball Championship?
Getting all four Staal brothers on the premises is a good start.
NHL stars Eric, Jordan,
A-Rod takes another crack at 600th home run in Cleveland >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez was supposed to take center stage in the
New York Yankees' game with the Cleveland Indians last night, but an unknown
rookie on the opposing team wound up being the star of the show.
After coming up empty on
Injury-depleted Tigers continue set at the Trop >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers are hurting, both on the field and in
the American League playoff race.
Faced with the prospect of their longest road losing streak in nearly five
years, the battered and badly-struggling Tigers continue
Ellis shuts down Panama in 9-2 win >>
Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Ellis is like any other player on
Canada's junior national baseball team - following his passion by playing the
sport he loves.
What's different about him and the rest of Team Canada's 18-and-under
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Super Bowl XLIII isn't even a week old yet and oddsmakers have already released Super Bowl XLIV odds.
Despite the Pittsburgh Steelers winning Super Bowl 43, the New England Patriots are 8/1 favorites to win Super Bowl 44.
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
With their 27-23 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, the Steelers became the latest NFL champion. But believe it or not, oddsmakers from online sports book MySportsbook.com don't have the Steelers the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIV next season.
That honor belongs to the New England Patriots, who are 8/1 favorites to win despite not even qualify for the postseason in 2008. The Pats also have a major decision to make regarding what to do with Matt Cassel, who played well in Tom Brady's (knee surgery) absence last year but is also a free agent this offseason.
Ironically, the Steelers aren't even oddsmakers second choice to win Super Bowl 44, as the Dallas Cowboys are listed right behind the Patriots at 9/1 despite not making the playoffs themselves. Clearly oddsmakers think the public will hop back on the Cowboys' bandwagon considering the immense talent they have and the opening of a brand new stadium.
After Dallas, then comes Pittsburgh at 10/1, but they share those odds with the New York Giants, who won Super Bowl XLII. The Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers round out the top six teams at 12/1, while the Baltimore Ravens (14/1), Tennessee Titans (16/1), Carolina Panthers (18/1) and Philadelphia Eagles (18/1) complete the top 10.
The NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals got no love from oddsmakers as they were established as a 30/1 long shot to win next year's Super Bowl. They share those same odds with the Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers – two teams that didn't even qualify for the postseason. Other long shots are the Kansas City Chiefs (100/1), Detroit Lions (100/1), St. Louis Rams (75/1) and Oakland Raiders (75/1).
To see a complete list of all the team's odds to win Super Bowl XLIV, check below.
NFL TEAM FUTURE ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XLIV
New England Patriots 8/1
Dallas Cowboys 9/1
New York Giants 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Indianapolis Colts 12/1
San Diego Chargers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 14/1
Tennessee Titans 16/1
Carolina Panthers 18/1
Philadelphia Eagles 18/1
New Orleans Saints 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Minnesota Vikings 25/1
New York Jets 25/1
Arizona Cardinals 30/1
Chicago BearS 30/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30/1
Buffalo Bills 35/1
Houston TexaNS 35/1
Miami Dolphins 35/1
Washington Redskins 35/1
Seattle SeahawkS 50/1
Cleveland Browns 55/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
San Francisco 49ers 60/1
Oakland Raiders 75/1
St. Louis Rams 75/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 100/1
Odds as of: 2/2/09
Bet Super Bowl XLIV Future Odds
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