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08/22/2007 - Washington, D.C. (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coach Bruce Arena is worried if New York will have enough "gas back in the tank" for Wednesday's key showdown at D.C. United.
New York won one of the best games in Major League Soccer history on Saturday, 5-4 over Los Angeles and David Beckham. But afterward, the coach knew the pace of the game would require New York to use a "couple new players" Wednesday for the first of two games this week.
"I think (the L.A. game) was a performance that took a lot out of our team and it's going to be important if we can recover physically," Arena said.
The Red Bulls got two goals apiece from Jozy Altidore - his second game in a row with two goals - and Juan Pablo Angel in the victory over the Galaxy. New York has scored eight goals in its last two games - which is the highest two- game total in MLS this season.
Keeping up that pace on tired legs won't be easy. Doing it against the hottest defense in the league will make it even tougher.
D.C. has posted three straight shutouts to set a team-record of 341 minutes without allowing a goal.
"I think that our performance defensively as a unit has been much better. Any time you're throwing shutouts, that is important," D.C. coach Tom Soehn said.
The teams have met twice already, splitting the previous meetings. This time, second place in the Eastern Conference is on the line and the winner could be at the top of the standings by the end of the week.
D.C. and New York each have 33 points - United has played one less game - and are six points behind first-place New England. United and the Red Bulls play twice this week while New England plays only once - vs. New York on Saturday.
In addition to recovering from Saturday's epic and relying on a few new faces, New York could be without midfielder Claudio Reyna on Wednesday because of a groin strain.
One thing Arena's not worried about is New York having a mental letdown.
"I don't think it's guarding a letdown as much as it's regrouping ... I don't think we'll have a letdown on the mental side; we just have to make sure we do a good job in making sure our players recover and get them physically ready to play," Arena said.
D.C. is riding its second three-game winning streak of the season, but lost a key part of its team in Saturday's 2-0 victory over Columbus. Joshua Gros left the game with a concussion - he's had a history of them - and has been ruled out of Wednesday's game.
Since missing the season opener because of concussion problems, Gros started the last 18 games for United. Only leading scorer Luciano Emilio, who has 19 appearances and 18 starts, has played in more games this season for D.C.
The only benefit for United was Gros was injured early in the victory over the Crew, so D.C. has more than 80 minutes of experience without Gros. United had both of their goals in the second half against Columbus.
"First half, we weren't very good with the ball and they came out with a lot of life. We have to get through stretches like that and contain the pressure, but we weren't good off of the ball at the start," Soehn said. "At halftime we made some tactical adjustments that opened up a lot of space for us. Along with that we were much better with the ball and created some room on the flanks and doing that relaxed some weaknesses of theirs."
In addition to the injury to Gros, D.C. midfielder Ben Olsen sat out the win over Columbus because of an injury. He is expected to be back in the lineup Wednesday. Olsen had a hat trick in United's 4-2 win over New York this year.
If New York needed anything else to worry about, it has to deal with Emilio - who leads MLS with 14 goals and has 12 in his last 11 games.
D.C., which lost the other meeting this year at New York 1-0, visits Toronto FC on Saturday in its second game of the week.
<< Skinner set to battle Hornaday Jr. and Kvapil at Bristol
Bristol, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - "Race leader Mike Skinner" is a phrase used
quite often this season. The driver of the No.5 Toyota truck has led at least
one lap in the last 19 races dating back to the Atlanta Motor Speedway in
October
<< Reds bring up Saarloos from minors
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cincinnati Reds selected the
contract of pitcher Kirk Saarloos from Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday.
Saarloos, who was up with the team earlier this season, went 1-4 with a robust
8.19 earned
<< Ferguson joins Vikings
Eden Prairie, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Veteran receiver Robert Ferguson agreed to
terms with the Minnesota Vikings on Tuesday.
Ferguson, who was cut by Green Bay last Friday, was drafted in the second
round by the Packers in 2001 and had p
<< Rain wipes out Day 1 at Forest Hills
Forest Hills, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Four opening-round matches were postponed
because of rain Tuesday at the $74,800 Forest Hills Sony Ericsson WTA Tour
Classic.
Second-seeded American Meilen Tu was scheduled to meet Italian Roberta V
Cubs reinstate Floyd, activate Blanco >>
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs activated outfielder
Cliff Floyd from the restricted list and activated catcher Henry Blanco from
the 60-day disabled list on Tuesday.
Floyd was originally placed on the bereavemen
Fire try to stay hot against Wizards >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mexican international Cuauhtemoc Blanco has
needed just three games to turn Chicago into a playoff contender.
Since joining Chicago in July, he has one goal and two assists during a three-
game unbeaten st
Brazilian midfielder joins Italian giant AC Milan >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid midfielder Emerson, a Brazilian,
is returning to the Italian Serie A with AC Milan.
Emerson, 31, played for Real last season but has spent most of his career in
the Serie A. Terms of the deal w
Real Madrid midfielder returns to Italian Serie A >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid midfielder Emerson, a Brazilian,
is returning to the Italian Serie A with AC Milan.
Emerson, 31, played for Real last season but has spent most of his career in
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MySportsbook.com Releases World Series Championship Lines
New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox early favorites to win 2008 World Series
The Major League Baseball season starts this weekend and MySportsbook.com, a leading online sportsbook for over 8 years, is the first to offer baseball sports betting lines on who will win the 2007 World Series.
"The World Series is the biggest baseball event in the sports betting world and MySportsbook.com is excited that we are first to market with betting lines on every team," says Tim Dalton, Marketing Director, MySportsbook.com. "We are getting things ready for a great baseball season and our members are looking forward to our Player Payback Bonuses, as well as Dime Lines, all season long."
Going in to this weekend, MySportsbook.com's favorites to win the World Series are the New York Yankees at 7-2 and last year’s winners the Chicago White Sox at 9-2.
"These betting lines are ripe for the picking," Dalton added, "baseball fans know that the season is long and many factors, including players staying healthy, will affect these Future odds as the baseball season progresses. Betting on your favorite team in the beginning of the season could prove quite lucrative. We are seeing examples of this right now in the NCAA College Basketball Tournament with a lucky few that placed pre-season bets on George Mason to win it all. Anything can happen."
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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