Quest for 600th HR brings A-Rod, Yankees back to Bronx vs. Blue Jays

Baseball Betting Lines

08/02/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez's quest to become the youngest player to 600 home runs takes him back to the Bronx this evening when the New York Yankees open a three-game set with the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium.

Rodriguez has gone 38 at-bats and 43 plate appearances since hitting No. 599 back on July 22 at Yankee Stadium. Once Rodriguez finally reaches the milestone, he will easily become the youngest player to do so. Babe Ruth hit his 600th at age 36, while Rodriguez turned 35 just last week.

Ruth may have reached the plateau quicker, hitting No. 600 in his 6,921st at- bat, but Rodriguez's pace (8,679 at-bats entering play Monday) trails only that of Barry Bonds (8,212) and eclipses Willie Mays (9,514) and Henry Aaron (10,009).

However, his amount of at-bats between home runs is the longest drought between homers 599 and 600 of the six other members in the club.

"The way I'm swinging now, it's probably going to take a while -- everybody get comfortable," Rodriguez joked this past weekend. "People are asking me about home runs. I'm asking for a hit-by-pitch, infield hit, bunt single, error. I'll get on base anyhow. The home run will come."

Rodriguez did not start on Sunday for New York, but struck out as a pinch hitter in the seventh inning of the Yankees' 3-0 loss to Tampa Bay.

New York lost two of three to the Rays, but still holds a one-game edge on them for first place in the American League East.

CC Sabathia (13-5) went 6 2/3 innings in the start, allowing three runs on eight hits to take the loss. The left-hander has lost two straight starts since winning nine consecutive decisions.

"I didn't think he had great command of his sinker," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said of Sabathia. "But he found a way to keep the game close and give us a chance."

Getting the call for the Yankees tonight will be righty A.J. Burnett, who has won three of his last four starts and hasn't surrendered a run in either of his last two outings. Burnett scattered seven hits over 6 1/3 scoreless innings to beat the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday to run his record to 9-8, while lowering his earned run average to 4.52.

Burnett, who pitched three seasons for the Jays, is 2-2 against his former team with a 3.61 ERA in six starts.

Toronto will counter with righty Brandon Morrow, who is 7-6 with a 4.62 ERA. Morrow won his second straight start last Monday against Baltimore, as he allowed two runs and five hits in six innings.

Morrow has faced the Yankees 10 times (four starts) and is 1-0 with a 4.03 ERA.

Toronto lost the final two games of its three-game weekend series with the Cleveland Indians, falling 5-4 in Sunday's rubber match at Rogers Centre.

Yunel Escobar, Aaron Hill and Jose Bautista each hit a solo homer for the Blue Jays, who had won six of seven before the current slide. Hill finished with two hits and drove in a pair.

"I feel good. Coming out to the ballpark happy and loose and enjoying this," said Bautista, who leads the majors with 32 home runs. "I'm having an approach and sticking to it and hopefully I can remain consistent for the rest of the year."

Jesse Litsch (1-5) labored through four-plus innings by surrendering six hits, four runs and two walks while striking out a batter and was tagged with the loss.

The Yankees have split their six games with the Jays this season after winning 12 of the 18 matchups between the clubs a year ago.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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