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08/17/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the final week of October 2010 arrives, and the attention of the South Florida sports fan is focused on the Miami Dolphins, you'll know things are going very well for Tony Sparano's team.
If the Dolphins are, say, 3-3 after they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Oct. 24th, that probably isn't going to cut it.
Two days later, the Miami Heat travel to meet the Boston Celtics to open what many expect to be a momentous 2010-11 season for one of the most talented NBA rosters ever assembled.
Chad Henne, Brandon Marshall and Karlos Dansby may have their own brand of star power, but their collective Q rating is unlikely to be a match for that of King James, D-Wade, and Chris Bosh.
All the Dolphins can hope to do is win enough football games to divert a portion of the local attention. While the Miami brain trust of Bill Parcells, Jeff Ireland and Sparano is hardly worried about the impact the stars of the hardwood will have on the Dolphins' local profile, they have assembled a team that they expect to be competitive well into the winter.
One season after orchestrating a 10-game turnaround that included an AFC East title in 2008, Miami took a step back to 7-9 last year, and subsequently made offseason moves to prevent further slippage.
On offense, a long-sought-after weapon was added when the team traded for the Pro Bowl wideout Marshall, and the interior o-line was also tweaked.
Defensively, Parcells and Co. swapped out coordinator Paul Pasqualoni with Mike Nolan, and brought in talent like Dansby, ex-Saints pass rusher Charles Grant and rookies Jared Odrick and Koa Misi to turn around a flagging unit.
All of the moves were necessary for the Dolphins to stay competitive in a division where the Jets are the league's media darlings heading into 2010, and where the Patriots haven't had a losing season since Tom Brady was a rookie reserve.
Though few are talking about the Fins in the expectant tones reserved for the Heat, a couple of the right breaks could have the teams competing fiercely for attention in the local papers.
For Sparano, the lack of headlines - and the disappointing way the 2009 season unraveled - should have Miami eager to pile up wins and change perceptions about the direction of this team. In fact, the Dolphins' motto this season is "Feed the Wolf," and the consumable in this case is wins.
"I had a meeting with the group and kind of got into them a little bit during that practice about 7-9 not being good enough and how this football team shouldn't be fat," Sparano said early in training camp. "They should be starving; they should be hungry and want to feed the wolf."
"From our end out here," Sparano continued, "we feed the wolf when we do something good and that's what our guys understand. Small successes will lead to bigger successes down the way."
Below we take a capsule look at the 2010 edition of the Miami Dolphins, with a personnel evaluation and prognosis included therein:
2009 RECORD: 7-9 (3rd, AFC East)
LAST PLAYOFF APPEARANCE: 2008, lost to Baltimore, 27-9, in AFC Wild Card
COACH (RECORD): Tony Sparano (18-14 in two seasons with Dolphins, 18-14 overall)
OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Dan Henning
DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR: Mike Nolan
OFFENSIVE STAR: Brandon Marshall, WR (101 receptions, 1120 yards, 10 TD with Denver)
DEFENSIVE STAR: Karlos Dansby, LB (109 tackles, 1 INT, 1 sack with Arizona)
OFFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 4th rushing, 20th passing, 15th scoring
DEFENSIVE TEAM RANKS: 18th rushing, 24th passing, t25th scoring
KEY ADDITIONS: WR Brandon Marshall (from Broncos), G Richie Incognito (from Bills), G John Jerry (3rd Round, Ole Miss), OL Cory Procter (from Cowboys), DL Jared Odrick (1st Round, Penn State), DE Marques Douglas (from Jets), DE Charles Grant (from Saints) LB Karlos Dansby (from Cardinals), OLB Koa Misi (2nd Round, Utah), ILB Tim Dobbins (from Chargers), DB Kevin Hobbs (from Lions)
KEY DEPARTURES: WR/RS Ted Ginn Jr. (to 49ers), G Justin Smiley (to Jaguars), NT Jason Ferguson (retired), DE Phillip Merling (out for season/injured), OLB Jason Taylor (to Jets), OLB Joey Porter (to Cardinals), LB Akin Ayodele (to Broncos), LB Reggie Torbor (to Bills), CB Nathan Jones (to Broncos), S Gibril Wilson (to Bengals)
QB: Though his first season as an NFL starter could not be called spectacular, Henne (2878 passing yards, 12 TD, 14 INT) showed enough positives to suggest that he can be a consistently capable signal-caller down the road. Henne went 7-6 after taking over for Chad Pennington four games into the 2009 campaign, making the occasional mistakes you would expect of a 24-year-old quarterback but also displaying general accuracy and leadership qualities. With a year under his belt and Marshall in the fold as a bona fide No. 1 target, Henne should take a step forward this season. The battle to back Henne up will be between Pennington (413 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) and Tyler Thigpen (83 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT), and may not be settled until late in the preseason. Pennington is 34 and has 86 games worth of starting experience in the NFL, but has also had three shoulder surgeries and can't be completely counted on. Thigpen is athletic but is short on NFL experience and even shorter on winning experience. Pat White (81 rushing yards), a second-round pick in 2009, looks a failed experiment and could be asked to play wideout.
RB: One of the bright spots for the Dolphins in 2009 was the play of Ricky Williams (1121 rushing yards, 35 receptions, 13 TD), who became the first back in NFL history with five years between 1,000-yard seasons. Williams is 33 but is still in outstanding condition, and will be a major part of the Fins' two- back system again. The main component of that system, if he stays healthy, will be Ronnie Brown (648 rushing yards, 8 TD, 14 receptions). Brown's 2009 season ended due to a foot injury suffered in mid-November, marking the second time in the last three years the former No. 2 overall pick has failed to last the year. Patrick Cobbs (36 rushing yards) comes off a major knee injury, but if he recovers sufficiently, he should make the team ahead of Lex Hilliard (89 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 3 TD) due to his abilities on special teams. Lousaka Polite (123 rushing yards, 11 receptions) appeared in all 16 games for Miami at fullback last season, and is expected to remain in that role.
WR/TE: The Dolphins passing game lacked explosive outside options last season, and that deficiency was something that Parcells and GM Jeff Ireland addressed by dealing for Marshall. Marshall has had off-the-field problems and has never been much of a team player, but it's hard to argue with his three consecutive 100-catch, 1,000-yard seasons. His presence should help free up the rest of Miami's wideout group, which includes Davone Bess (76 receptions, 2 TD), Brian Hartline (31 receptions, 3 TD), and Greg Camarillo (50 receptions). Look for Hartline to win the job opposite Marshall, and for Bess to end up in the slot. The Fins also have high hopes for Patrick Turner, a 2009 third-round pick who appeared in just two games last season and did not have a catch. There are some familiar names at tight end, where Anthony Fasano (31 receptions, 2 TD) , Joey Haynos (19 receptions, 2 TD), and Kory Sperry (3 receptions, 1 TD) all return from last year's crew, and David Martin is back with the team after missing all of last season with a knee injury.
OL: Though there is some uncertainty on the Miami offensive line, it's not on the outside where tackles Jake Long (left side) and Vernon Carey (right side) are firmly entrenched. Long has made the Pro Bowl in each of his first two seasons, and Carey has not missed a start since 2005. Nate Garner, who started eight games at guard last season, looks like the top tackle backup and will also be in the mix at guard. There's a better chance the starting guards will be brand new, however. The Dolphins signed the volatile but serviceable Richie Incognito in free agency, and spent a third-round pick on mauler John Jerry. Their presence spells trouble for 12-game 2009 starter Donald Thomas, and ex- Cowboy Cory Procter is not a sure thing either. At center, Jake Grove and Joe Berger split time as the starter last year, and are battling for the job again in the preseason.
DL: The ability of the Dolphins defense to rebound from a disappointing 2009 will hinge largely on the development of a new-look three-man front. Following the retirement of nose tackle Jason Ferguson and the loss of end Phillip Merling for the season due to injury, the Fins must have players like nose tackles Paul Soliai (25 tackles) and Randy Starks (56 tackles, 7 sacks), young ends Jared Odrick (1st Round, Penn State) and Kendall Langford (43 tackles, 2.5 sacks), and incoming vets Marques Douglas (64 tackles, 1.5 sacks with the Jets) and Charles Grant (44 tackles, 5.5 sacks with the Saints) converge to form a reliable group. Starks and Odrick are both being asked to take on different responsibilities than they've been accustomed to. As they go, so might go this unit.
LB: In keeping with the general offseason demolition of the Miami front seven, the linebacking corps will have a radical new look as well. Gone are outside mainstays Joey Porter and Jason Taylor, while inside regulars Akin Ayodele and Reggie Torbor have waved goodbye too. Inside linebacker Channing Crowder (51 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) is the lone starting holdover from this group, and should love playing alongside Dansby. Dansby makes a ton of his plays and his energy will offer an instant upgrade. Things are less certain on the outside, where second-round rookie Koa Misi (Utah) is an unknown quantity and former CFLer Cameron Wake (23 tackles, 5.5 sacks) is being asked to take on a much larger role after a solid 2009 as a reserve. Holdovers Charlie Anderson (17 tackles, 2 sacks) and Quentin Moses (6 tackles, 1 sack) will have to beat out ex-Lions bust Ikaika Alama-Francis for a reserve job on the outside. Former Charger Tim Dobbins (53 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT with San Diego) looks like the No. 1 backup at ILB.
DB: Though their rank of 24th in NFL passing defense a year ago, might suggest differently, the strength of the Miami defense entering 2010 could be in the secondary. Corners Vontae Davis (52 tackles, 4 INT) and Sean Smith (39 tackles) are still learning, but did a credible job in '09 and should continue to improve. At strong safety, Yeremiah Bell (114 tackles, 3 INT, 1.5 sacks) made his first Pro Bowl last year and has appeared in all 16 games during four of the past five seasons. The biggest question in the defensive backfield is at free safety, where new coordinator Mike Nolan has to choose between Chris Clemons (13 tackles) or promising fifth-round draft choice Reshad Jones (Georgia). Tyrone Culver (32 tackles, 1 INT) is still around as well, but is best utilized in a backup role. The corner depth is thin, with shaky former first-rounder Jason Allen (22 tackles) and former Lion and Seahawk Kevin Hobbs (32 tackles with the Lions) looking like the best options there at the moment. Will Allen (21 tackles, 1 INT), who is coming off a knee injury, is uncertain to be available for Week 1.
SPECIAL TEAMS: The Dolphins should be all set in the kicking game. Dan Carpenter (25-28 FG) was among the league's most accurate kickers a year ago, and Brandon Fields (46.3 avg.) was solid at punter. The departed Ted Ginn made his biggest contribution as a Fin in the return game, but the team shouldn't lose much sleep without him there. Davone Bess (7.5 punt return avg.) and Patrick Cobbs (22.6 kickoff return avg.) look like the answer on punt returns and kickoff returns, respectively. John Denney returns for his sixth season as the Miami long snapper.
PROGNOSIS: For all of the expectations attached to the Jets, and to a lesser extent the Patriots, this season, it's important to note that the Dolphins went 3-1 against those teams (including a sweep of the Jets) last year. Though the record reflects that this was a a 7-9 club in the end, Miami actually had a 7-3 stretch of football at one point and was very much in the playoff hunt before falling apart in the final three weeks. Against that backdrop, an optimist might suggest that the Dolphins should be very much in the mix for the 2010 AFC East title. A pessimist, though, will point to two separate three-game losing streaks as evidence of how things seem to go south quickly in Miami, and how a roster chock full of new faces doesn't necessarily lend itself to consistent football. In a contentious division race, the needle seems to lean closer to the Dolphins being on the outside of the postseason looking in when all is said and done, but you can also bet on Sparano's squad being a tough out each and every week.
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
MySportsbook features easy-to-use online betting software that’s the most reliable in the industry. If you’re looking to bet underdogs, then this Sportsbook is the place - we have the best betting lines in the business. MySportsbook is your one-stop shop for all your betting needs - sports betting, poker, casino, and horse racing . MySportsbook offers every bet type with lightning fast settlement of wagers. Take advantage of free statistical analysis - including against-the-spread and straight-up trends - in MySportsbook’s game previews section. With MySportsbook there are unlimited free deposits and payouts - and no transaction fees!
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
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